Tools for Prediction & Star Trek Review
Tools for Prediction: Looking at Culture
In this article we look at a tool for shaping predictions, we apply it, then we give some examples of predictions.
When analyzing culture:
a. Look at at multi-year trends. At least 5 years is good.
b. Give several examples of the same phenomenon.
c. Examine at least one phenomenon in-depth.
Using this format as a tool when analyzing culture for the purpose of making predictions will give readers the clear impression that you know the field intimately and have analyzed it thoroughly. This format also gives readers food for thought and gives them multiple content opportunities to provide you with feedback.
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Let’s look at a recent cultural meme (one that has hopefully worked its way to death) and examine it using a common media style: the Movie Review.
(Caution: Spoilers Ahead)
One common theme in Hollywood has been the “origin of the superhero” theme. Going back a few years we’ve seen Batman begins, Darth Vader begins, Spiderman begins, Wolverine begins, etc., and most recently Captian Kirk begins. (and yes, Captain Kirk IS a superhero, just ask Nena)
The new Star Trek movie brilliantly executed this “origin” theme and combined it with several other common litterary themes; the search for the father, fixing past mistakes, the Oedipal complex, etc.
In the movie we meet Kirk’s four (4) fathers, each one shaping and molding the Kirk we allready know and love. (thanks Mom for making me watch re-runs of TOS)
Father 1 - The first father we meet is Kirk’s birth father. While he and Kirk never meet, this first father foreshadows Kirk’s charachter completley. He even gives him his name. Father 1 also pases-on Kirk’s main charachter traits; First Officer in Starfleet who rapidly gets promoted to captain and takes bold risks to save his friends.
Father 2 - We never meet Kirk’s second father. Indeed, we never even see him on screen, we only hear his voice for a few seconds on the phone. And yet in these few seconds we are assaulted with imagery that clearly gives an indication of this guy’s charachter and his influence on Kirk’s life at a young and impressionable age. Somebody taught Kirk how to ride motorcycles, wear leather jackets, fight in bars, and challenge authority. As Kirk’s mother was “off-world”, it was probably this guy.
Father 3 - Clearly meant to be a living, breathing, father figure who’s role is greatly expanded from original Trekology is Admiral Pike. Pike puts Kirk into Starfleet, promotes him to First Officer, and believes in him. The all around good-guy, the one to whom we can say “Thanks Dad.”
Father 4 - Spock. Remember, original Kirk’s brain once held Spock’s mind. In the time they spend on the Ice planet Old Spock transfers 40+ years of memory and experience into Young Kirk’s brain. This relationship completes the cycle, giving Kirk his mission, emotions, and turning him into the Classic Kirk we all know and love. From surrogate father to son, the torch has been passed.
It’s also really nice that they balance this with Young Spock’s dificulty in accepting his human mother then finding a human girl himself. (Nice one guys, some english major is gonna love doing a thesis on that theme)
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SO:
To do a post on predictions for “The direction of Hollywood movies following the current recession”, we could use a run-up like that one to justify to our readers that even if our predictions are wrong, even if our analysis is wrong, at least we’re thinking about it and not just producing linkbait top 10 lists.
Hypothetically, you were hired by a big company to do some forecasting. In your report you include a cultural review for the basis of your predictions, and focused part of your cultural review on cinema, what kind of predictions could you come up with?
-It looks in this case like the Lazarus theme has been dormant for a while and will probably soon be recycled. Look for it to come back in the Star Trek sequel, ala Search for Spock.
-It’s probably too soon for the Savior/Prophet theme to come back as we’re still recoiling from the Matrix movies.
-Superheros have been done to death, but while we’re still in the recession studios are going to look to well-established cultural memes to get a sure thing. Maybe video games? Been hearing rumors of an Asteroids script in the works.
-At some point soon, computer culture is going to hit the big screen again. Tron, Hackers, The Net, eventually we’ll get the 2.0 version:
-“You-Tube, the movie, a story about a boy and his camera-phone that uncover an environmental conspiracy.”
-“Coolhunter, the movie, a story based on the the books of Tristan Bancks”
-“Startup - the movie, a comedy staring Jack Black which gives us memorable one-liners ala Office Space.”
